Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
